BREAKING NEWS [18/09/08] Malaysiakini:
Pakatan Rakyat leader Anwar Ibrahim today said that he has sent a letter to PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to convene an emergency session of the Parliament for an emergency motion to be debated on the premier’s government.
Anwar, in a press conference, said that the opposition coalition wanted to debate on a motion of no confidence against Abdullah.
He wanted the Parliament to be recalled as soon as next Tuesday.
The letter to Badawi will most likely be tossed in the dustbin, which would leave Anwar little choice but to refer to:
Federal Constitution 43 (4) If the Prime Minister ceases to command the confidence of the majority of the members of the House of Representatives, then, unless at his request the Yang di-Pertuan Agong dissolves Parliament, the Prime Minister shall tender the resignation of the Cabinet.
Because Badawi doesn’t want to see Anwar and his list of MPs and discuss a peaceful transtion of power, the possible scenarios in the next few days are:
Anwar seeks audience with Yang Di-Pertuan Agong, shows him the list, which will show that [as per Art 43 (4)]: “the Prime Minister ceases to command the confidence of the majority of the members of the House of Representatives” which will compel Badawi to uphold the latter half of Art 43 (4): “the Prime Minister shall tender the resignation of the Cabinet.”
However, Constitutional expert Prof. Shad Saleem Faruqi in today’s Sun, dismisses the idea that a visit to the Istana will have any effect:
… under the Constitution, the Agong cannot dismiss the prime minister, the Parliament must dismiss the PM. And at the moment, the Dewan is not in session. If there is a vote of no confidence on the PM, it must be in the Dewan.
…
Anwar said they are going to the Istana. They are most welcome to the Istana; they can have nice tea there, I’m sure, but nothing more than that. A piece of paper with 112 names is not enough. Anyone can write their names. It has to be on the floor of the house.
The Prof does concede that there is somewhat of a lacuna between the Constitution and Parliamentary Standing Orders:
They can call for a motion of no confidence against the PM but the standing order of the Dewan is silent about this. There is no mention of vote of no confidence in the standing order.
…
So, what needs to be done is for the MPs to introduce some other motions. An MP, any MP, can introduce a motion. But then, it will have to be decided by the Speaker and he would first need enough number of MPs to support it, and then debate it, then only he will accept it.
This will undoubtedly be shot down even before anyone can open his mouth, as evidenced by Pakatan’s attempt in the last Parliamentary session. [See also archived posting, "No Confidence Monday"]
Therefore one must interpret “members of the House of Representatives” in Art 43(4) on a wider basis – that they remain Members even if Parliament is in recess. As such if “the majority” of these visit the King together, they may be able to circumvent the neccessity of a vote of no confidence in Parliament and the inherent lacuna therein.
However, if this is the course of action, Badawi can also use this route and beat Anwar to the gates of the Istana. Then if he is able to convince the Agong that it would be better to uphold the MIDDLE part of Art 43(4): “at his [Badawi's] request the Yang di-Pertuan Agong dissolves Parliament” – then the ‘reset’ button is pressed and a snap elections will be called.
However, as snap elections are a gamble the BN could most likely lose, [and the Agong can even refuse to dissolve Parliament, as per Art.40(2)(b)] another alternative would be to cite Anwar’s moves in the last few weeks as “a threat to national security” and detain him under the ISA – which according to Malaysiakini this afternoon, he has already hinted at:
The premier issued a warning that appear to indicate the possibility of an ISA arrest for the maverick politician … ‘He has become a threat to the economy and possibly (national) security,” he said. This in itself provides sufficient grounds for the authorities to invoke [the ISA] against Anwar.
However, given the popular support of the citizens that Anwar definitely has, putting him away will result in utter disenfranchisement, disaffection, disgust and worst case, a grave danger of a people’s uprising – which may actually SAVE Badawi in the end … more on this below…
Another scenario which could develop is … NAJIB could gather enough BN MPs who’ve had it with Badawi! And if he can claim that since it’s apparent that all Pakatan MPs have also lost confidence in the PM, then via Art 43(4), Najib himself can get Badawi to resign.
Then if Najib can force all the BN MPs to sign a memorandum that they support him – and forcing them is the easiest part - all he has to do now is cite Art 43 (2)(a) “the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall first appoint as Perdana Menteri (Prime Minister) to preside over the Cabinet a member of the House of Representative who in his judgment is likely to command the confidence of the majority of the members of that House;”
Badda-bing-badda boom, Najib is suddenly Prime Minister in one fell swoop.
Which is why Badawi has taken over the Defence Minister portfolio – if Najib pulls this stunt, or even if Anwar is ISA’d and the rakyat take to the streets, Badawi will advise the Agong to declare an emergency and martial law with the military under their command – a scenario which has seen countless repeats in Thailand…..
150(1) If the Yang di-Pertuan Agong is satisfied that a grave emergency exists whereby the security, or the economic life, or public order in the Federation or any part thereof is threatened, he may issue a Proclamation of Emergency making therein a declaration to that effect.
137(1) There shall be an Armed Forces Council, which shall be responsible under the general authority of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong for the command, disciplne and administration of, and all other matters relating to, the armed forces, other than matters relating to their operatonial use.
137(3) The Armed Forces Council shall consist of …(a) the Minister for the time being charged with responsibility for defence, who shall be Chairman;
But the above option is fraught with economic repercussions: the stock market will crash, the ringgit will plunge, the economy will go into immediate recession, if not depression, which will be felt most of all by BN ministers and thier “associates” who will lose all the ”business” they’ve done “for the country” over the years. One can already imagine their terror-stricken faces at the mere mention of ‘emergency’.
So it all litreally goes down to the wire – whoever reaches the Istana first, “wins”.
Anwar’s run reminds me of Diego Maradona’s “Goal of the Century” [World Cup 86 quarterfinal Eng vs Arg]:
[Note the bulk of the above analysis was written and published at 6.30pm on 17 Sept, with the views of Prof. Faruqi added in at 10.30am 18 Sept - therefore long before the article by Prof. Dr. Aziz Bari, "The King Needs to Intervene" which was published in Malaysiakini at 1.40pm 18 Sept]
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